Is Google+ going to do to Facebook what Facebook did to MySpace?
I have been trying to understand the reasons why people abandoned other social networks like MySpace and Orkut(which was very popular in India and Brazil) in favor of Facebook .. when facebook burst on the scene. And if Facebook would fall prey to the same causal factors - and lose to Google+.
My feeling is- probably not. Here are my reasons why: (Your comments welcome);
a) On Social Sites - people go where their friends are
b) High school and college students - are the heavy users of social sites
c) People do not want YET another site to visit to stay in touch with friends
..it complicates their lives
So then - why were Orkut and MySpace and Friendster ditched by the users? They had the initial advantage. My top 3 causes:
1) Obtrusive Ads - intruded upon the social interaction
2) Facebook using its university roots and pedigree -- was very appealing to the heavy users (High School- College students). Invitation only cachet made it desirable to join!. Initially- unless you could say which university you were at - you could not join facebook
3) When the 'popular' kids left .. the others followed. So capturing the 'social group leaders' was key.
Are these conditions likely to be repeated for Google +? Unlikely. Like I said - that was then ..and this is now. Causes a) and b) are no longer there. So c) is operative - and that is why facebook will still survive and google+ is going to
hit a wall.
So What is the opportunity for Google? In a word - Tablets and Internet TV's .
Or more specifically older folk who buy tablets!. Plus - a tighter integration with the data on the cloud and Android.
Google has tremendous data assets (searchable) that Facebook (and others ) just cannot match or replicate easily.
This is going to be valuable when social interaction goes beyond mere gossip - and we want Augmented Reality Interactions. This is where - people want to show and share stuff to get things done - with better information. The kind of information that is available on google's servers.
Google+ may not make it -- because kids may not break away from facebook BUT older folks will need another site to go to for meaningful social interactions - and google needs to aim for that.
Using gmail to attract users for the second kind of social interaction is good-- because email and calendars are already a big part of getting things done. And Google can get a really tight/easy-to-use integration with its Android OS on the Tablets and Handhelds. The way they do with Google Maps.
That's where Facebook cannot compete! They could write the application. They just don't have the data!! (Neither does Microsoft -- but they are trying)
What do you think?
My feeling is- probably not. Here are my reasons why: (Your comments welcome);
a) On Social Sites - people go where their friends are
b) High school and college students - are the heavy users of social sites
c) People do not want YET another site to visit to stay in touch with friends
..it complicates their lives
So then - why were Orkut and MySpace and Friendster ditched by the users? They had the initial advantage. My top 3 causes:
1) Obtrusive Ads - intruded upon the social interaction
2) Facebook using its university roots and pedigree -- was very appealing to the heavy users (High School- College students). Invitation only cachet made it desirable to join!. Initially- unless you could say which university you were at - you could not join facebook
3) When the 'popular' kids left .. the others followed. So capturing the 'social group leaders' was key.
Are these conditions likely to be repeated for Google +? Unlikely. Like I said - that was then ..and this is now. Causes a) and b) are no longer there. So c) is operative - and that is why facebook will still survive and google+ is going to
hit a wall.
So What is the opportunity for Google? In a word - Tablets and Internet TV's .
Or more specifically older folk who buy tablets!. Plus - a tighter integration with the data on the cloud and Android.
Google has tremendous data assets (searchable) that Facebook (and others ) just cannot match or replicate easily.
This is going to be valuable when social interaction goes beyond mere gossip - and we want Augmented Reality Interactions. This is where - people want to show and share stuff to get things done - with better information. The kind of information that is available on google's servers.
Google+ may not make it -- because kids may not break away from facebook BUT older folks will need another site to go to for meaningful social interactions - and google needs to aim for that.
Using gmail to attract users for the second kind of social interaction is good-- because email and calendars are already a big part of getting things done. And Google can get a really tight/easy-to-use integration with its Android OS on the Tablets and Handhelds. The way they do with Google Maps.
That's where Facebook cannot compete! They could write the application. They just don't have the data!! (Neither does Microsoft -- but they are trying)
What do you think?
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